How many points Sheffield United need for automatic promotion after Millwall defeat - according to Opta
Sheffield United dropped out of the automatic promotion places on Tuesday but are only two points short of Leeds United and Burnley.
Sheffield United are facing an uphill battle to claim back an automatic promotion place following Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat at home to Millwall.
United fell to a second defeat in four days courtesy of Josh Coburn’s 21st-minute effort, with Chris Wilder’s men unable to find a leveller in over an hour of football at Bramall Lane. The Blades might feel they should have had a penalty when Jake Cooper pulled Anel Ahmedhodzic’s shirt and there were chances to score throughout, but a difficult evening ended with an audible chorus of boos as Leeds United climbed into first and Burnley took second place with a 0-0 draw at Derby County.
Despite a pretty miserable few days, United remain right in the mix for automatic promotion and Wilder has vowed to ‘go again’ at Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, a game that now looks like a must win. But as quickly as they dropped out of the automatic promotion places, the Blades can climb right back in there.
With five games left for each side to play, there are 15 points up for grabs and the fact United go to Burnley later this month means it is still in their hands. The Blades are chasing and should Leeds win all of their final games, they will prove uncatchable.
However, United will have the chance to go ahead of Burnley even if Scott Parker’s side win every game up until that top-of-the-table meeting on Easter Monday. The Blades would have to win at Turf Moor, however, with a draw good enough for the Clarets to keep themselves in the top two.
How many points do Sheffield United need for automatic promotion?
Wilder insisted last week he does not expect all three teams to enjoy a perfect run-in, however, and the pressure of a promotion race will certainly throw up some curveballs. Statistical gurus Opta updated their predicted table following Tuesday’s results and they expect United to finish third, racking up a total of 92 points.
Interestingly, however, they expect both Burnley and Leeds to end the season around the 95-point mark - Leeds are predicted to finish top with the Clarets a close second. Should Opta’s algorithm prove correct with the current top-two both ending on 95, then in theory United could leapfrog them by gaining 13 points from their final five games.
That would mean an unbeaten end to the campaign, with four wins and a draw needed for 96 points. Due to their inferior goal difference compared to both Leeds and Burnley, the Blades would almost certainly need to go ahead on points alone. But United would greatly increase their chances of doing so with victory at Turf Moor, which is looking increasingly important with each passing week.
Should United beat Burnley, then the latter’s predicted points total would drop, possibly by a point or two, and that could leave the Blades needing somewhere between 11 or 12 points to secure a top-two finish. And alongside victory at Turf Moor, that would only look like three more wins in their other final four games.
Defeat to Millwall was far from ideal and consecutive losses has put a dent in United’s promotion hopes, but they remain well-placed to fight for a top-two spot. Wilder’s men will be focused on getting back to winning ways at Plymouth this weekend but might also hope those above slip up as well.
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