Sheffield weather for 10k as Met Office issues El Niño warning for “wetter” and “stormier” winter
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts”
Runners taking part in Sheffield’s 10k on Sunday look set to have perfect conditions.
Thousands are expected in the city centre for the popular annual event, with the The Met Office’s forecast stating: “After a fine, if breezy, morning, rain moves through Sunday afternoon.”
The UK is expected to see a “wetter” and “stormier” winter due to the impacts of the El Nino, the Met Office warns.
This comes after the national weather service announced an update on the development of the El Nino, stating that the UK will see its impacts in Autumn and early Winter.
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As September comes to an end, Autumn is here with some mixed weather making you question whether a winter coat is needed or not.
The weather in Sheffield this week has been pretty mild, with little rain and some cloudy days. It appears that no significant weather events will be occurring in Sheffield over the coming weeks, as BBC Weather predicts a mix of heavy rain and some sun on its way.
But as sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now surpassed levels recorded during any previous event, the Met Office predicts the end of this year will be a stark contrast to the hot summer we’ve just experienced.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average.
Professor Scaife added: “A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2oC being a really big event.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
The Met Office’s long-range forecast shows record values of more than 3 degrees in the coming months.
Meaning the current evidence indicates 2026 is going to be renowned for the development of the “largest El Nino in living memory”.
Additionally, the changing conditions also drive an increase in global average temperature, because more heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere.
Because of this, it is expected that 2027 is likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s Chief of Science and Technology, said: “This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.”
An increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions does come with risks of flooding, but the Met Office will continue to monitor any developments to see the true impacts El Nino will have on parts of the UK.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Ian Lisk, said: "The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.
“However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK's weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.
“We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”