The big factor that shows Sheffield United are well on course for Premier League

Sitting pretty in second place in the Championship, and with a nine-point gap to third-placed Blackburn Rovers, and a six-game unbeaten league run under their belt, United are in fine form and supporters will be looking to right the wrongs of last season and avoid the Play-Offs.

But what can history tell us about the possible outcome of United’s season? It would be fair to assume that a repeat of the form and results from the first half of the season will see United promoted in the automatic positions. But is it as clear cut as that? There are no guarantees in football but, using ‘Points Total, ‘Goals For’ and ‘Goals Against’ as reference points, a look back at stats from the last ten Championship seasons could indicate targets if automatic promotion is to be achieved.

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Last season (2021/22), Fulham and AFC Bournemouth led the way, as the top two placed teams, achieving automatic promotion: Fulham with 90 points, Bournemouth with 88 points. At the half-way stage of that season, they had 45 and 43 points respectively; Fulham literally doubling their points tally in the second half of the season, and Bournemouth all but doing so. Interestingly, however, the gap after 23 games to the third placed team, Blackburn Rovers, was only a single point, a gap they failed to close. Ironically, this season it is Blackburn Rovers again sitting in third place. The gap of 9 points to the Blades should provide confidence to their supporters that it will be a difficult gap to bridge. At the half-way point (23 games) in the current season, United stood on 44 points; one less than Fulham (45pts), and one more than Bournemouth (43pts) at the same stage last season.

Points make prizes

In terms of the number of points that may be required to achieve automatic promotion to the Premier League, taking the last ten seasons into consideration, the average points tally has been 94 points for first place and 88 points for the second automatic spot.

With a nine-point gap to Blackburn in third place currently, it would be hoped that goal difference, goals scored, and goals conceded should not be a concern to the Blades on their Premier League quest. However, the stats demonstrate that United are on track to exceed the ‘Goals For’(GF) average for teams finishing second (72GF) in the Championship having reached 38 ‘Goals For’ at the halfway point, but with some work to do, or more goals to score, to surpass the ten-season average for title winning teams in the Championship of 84 ‘Goals For’.

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Tight at the back

United, having conceded 20 league goals at the halfway point of the season are on track towards equalling the ten-season average ‘Goals Against’ for their current second spot in the Championship (40 GA). However, in a quirk of statistical analysis, surprisingly the ‘Goals Against’ average for the top placed team, the champions, over the past ten years in the Championship is higher (42 GA).

In summary, the stats on paper suggest that the omens are good for a positive outcome for Sheffield United this season. However, as the old cliché goes, ‘football is played on grass’ and circumstance has a habit of intervening at any stage. Issues in the Boardroom, transfer window activity, injured players, or even the weather may impact on the outcome. What is clear is that the Blades will probably never have a better chance to secure Premier League status, and all the riches that brings.