It took a 98th-minute equaliser from Ollie Norwood to earn a draw at home to Blackpool on Saturday and prevent their recent results looking even worse, although Paul Heckingbottom’s side are still second in the division after being overtaken at the top by Burnley.
But their position in the promotion picture looks a lot less solid than it did going into the international break, when they were two points clear of second and five ahead of third.
So, we looked at the data compiled by experts at FiveThirtyEight, who use a statistical model to predict the outcomes of seasons, to see how they now picture the promotion race ending and the impact United’s recent results have had on their hopes of getting back into the promised land of the Premier League.
Each side has a percentage probability of being relegated, making the play-offs and being promoted. And here, in reverse order, is how the experts predict the Championship season will pan out… will they be proved right?

17. 9th Stoke City
Relegation chances: 4%. Play-offs: 22%. Promoted: 12% Photo: Lewis Storey

18. 8th Millwall
Relegation chances: 4%. Play-offs: 21%. Promoted: 12% Photo: Alex Livesey

19. 7th West Brom
Relegation chances: 4%. Play-offs: 23%. Promoted: 14% Photo: Lewis Storey

20. 6th Luton Town (play-offs)
Relegation chances: 3%. Play-offs: 25%. Promoted: 16%. Win league: 4% Photo: George Wood


