Data experts predict how Sheffield United's defeat to Middlesbrough affects promotion race; Burnley, Millwall, Sunderland in mix - gallery

Sheffield United’s hopes of extending their lead over third-placed Middlesbrough were dashed by a 3-1 defeat to Michael Carrick’s men on Wednesday evening, blowing the automatic promotion race wide open once again.

The Blades still have a better goal difference than Carrick’s side, and also have a game in hand ahead of their trip to Millwall this weekend. But the gap between the two sides is down to seven points, with Boro’s display giving them renewed belief that they can still overhaul United and seal automatic promotion this season.

With 15 games of the regular season remaining – or 14 for Boro – there will be plenty more twists and turns to come, for sure, in a division as competitive as it is unpredictable.

And the data boffins at FiveThirtyEight have applied their detailed statistical model to the Championship in a bid to determine how the final table will look come May, giving each side a percentage chance of relegation or promotion.

Here's how, in reverse order, they believe the Championship table will finish after the transfer window slammed shut. But will it play out that way?

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