‘When, not if’: Health boss warns Sheffield WILL be put into Tier 3 lockdown

Greg Fell made the stark warning at a press briefing on Tuesday, less than 24 hours after the city was placed into Tier 2 on the Government’s coronavirus alert system, bringing with it a host of new rules.

Sheffield’s R number is ‘definitely above one’ and the infection rate per 100,000 people is ‘in the order of 450 to 460’, around nine times the national average based on the latest available data. Even after accounting for students, it would still be too high, according to Mr Fell.

He said: “There’s no clearly defined threshold for intensification. My sense is it will come, the numbers are going upwards. It’s difficult to tell when, where and how.

"It will be difficult to enforce our way through this as a city. I think we will end up erring towards level 3. It’s definitely all about social mixing. Education is definitely off limits [to close schools], work is definitely off limits, that leaves other social mixing.”

Mr Fell admitted he did not know exactly when the city could be moved to Tier 3, but said it could be within “weeks”.

He said: “These things are moving in the space of days and weeks and not months. If it happens it’s going to be weeks away at most.

"It’s only a matter of when, not if.”

A rise in hospital admissions, the seven-day rolling average of new cases and the rate of increase could trigger Tier 3 restrictions, Mr Fell predicted.

He also called for greater clarity from central Government on how areas with tougher restrictions can see them eased.

He said: “The exit strategy needs to be absolutely clear. This will be a long, difficult autumn and winter, that I have no doubt.

"The Government haven’t yet been clear on the exit strategy and whether it’s owned by Government or local leaders.”

There has been some suggestion England may require a ‘circuit breaker’ like in Scotland to bring infection numbers down but Mr Fell expressed concerns about this proposed strategy.

He said: "I’m not convinced on the circuit breaker, it would need to be a really long circuit breaker [...] the rate of decline is quite slow.”

Despite Sheffield’s seemingly bleak outlook, there is evidence similar restrictions imposed in the North East of England have ‘significantly flattened’ the rate of growth there, Mr Fell said.

And while the city’s hospitals have seen a rise in the number of coronavirus patients being treated, they remain in a “pretty good state, but it [winter] will be long and difficult.”

Mr Fell said: “Everyone wants silver bullets and they don’t exist. For me it’s about the rate of rise rather than bringing rates down. The restriction on social mixing is about slowing the rate of growth.

"The behaviours and choices that 585,000 people make in their own homes, that will be the thing that really makes the difference.”

He added: “It probably makes sense to act sooner rather than later but then there’s the whole social and economic harm that needs to go into the mix.”