At least 54,600 new homes needed in Sheffield by 2040

With 531,931 people aged 16 and over expected to be living in Sheffield by 2040 – including 115,625 people aged 66 and over, 174,672 first-time buyers (25-44-year-olds), and 64,934 of student age (18-22) – the analysis highlights the pressing need to accommodate the city’s demographic growth.

Social housing stock in Sheffield is estimated to plummet by an additional 8,658 properties by 2040 – the third greatest loss of any local authority area in England behind Birmingham and Leeds – despite 13,662 people being on the city’s housing register in 2023.

The research also identifies high levels of under-occupancy, with 31,897 people aged 66 and over residing in homes larger than necessary (two or more bedrooms unoccupied) in 2021. If this trend continues, 43,273 65+ households are expected to be under-occupied in 2040.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “With two universities in the city, Sheffield is expected to see the third largest student-age population growth in England by 2040, behind Southampton and Coventry, and Portsmouth. It will also experience double-digit growth (14%) in its first-time buyer population as more young people remain or move to the city – the fifth highest increase in the country.

“With a growing first-time buyer demographic, market housing will be in high demand. However, with such significant levels of under-occupation, there is also a real opportunity to develop right-sized properties for the city’s ageing population.

“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space, helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”

In contrast to the remaining local authorities within Yorkshire & the Humber, Sheffield is forecast to see the largest uptick in its first-time buyer demographic (14%) and the greatest surge in its student-age population (25%).

Leeds will need to deliver the greatest number of homes by 2040 (74,433), is poised to experience the most significant decline in its social housing stock (11,000), and will have the highest number of under-occupied properties (53,521). Barnsley is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 46% by 2040.

Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing need in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.

Simon Macklen, partner and head of economics at Marrons, said: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next two decades, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.

“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.

“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise the needs of future residents and start building the right homes today.”