After a promising start to the campaign and a wobble or two, Sheffield Wednesday have stabilised to go sixth with seven matches remaining, with the nature of recent wins over Burton Albion, Cambridge United and Cheltenham Town further maintaining fan hopes they’ll stop there.
But the competition in the top third is fierce and if they are able to grab a playoff spot, the Owls will be made to work for it.
After that 4-1 Cheltenham win, what do the numbers say on where they will finish, and what about the relegation battle and the likes of Sunderland, Ipswich and Plymouth Argyle?
The number crunchers at world-renowned statistics outlet FiveThirtyEight have put the remaining fixtures, form guides and the quality of squad through the supercomputer. Here’s what the numbers say.
After that 4-1 Cheltenham win, what do the numbers say on where they will finish, and what about the relegation battle and the likes of Sunderland, Ipswich and Plymouth Argyle?
5. 21st - AFC Wimbledon - 40 pts
The stats gurus have AFC Wimbledon as the fourth side to go down, slapping them with a 62% chance of being relegated. A result or two over the next couple of weeks - they visit Hillsborough on Saturday - and they'll be back into it. They'll do it with a new manager, too, after the departure of Mark Robinson.
Photo: Jacques Feeney
6. 20th - Gillingham - 42 pts
It's not long ago Gillingham seemed down and out. But the appointment of Neil Harris seems to ave worked wonders and though they're still very much a part of the scrap at the bottom, the algorithms suggest they have a one-in-three chance of being relegated.
Photo: James Chance
7. 19th - Fleetwood Town - 44 pts
Another side that have been part of the relegation conversation all season, Fleetwood will welcome Wednesday in the penultimate game of the campaign. The numbers suggest they have a one in five chance of the drop and will achieve 44 points.
Photo: Lewis Storey
8. 18th - Lincoln City - 52 pts
This is where, according to the data, the relegation scrap ends. Lincoln have had their wobbles but have climbed away from the drop zone in recent weeks - a 3-1 win over Wednesday helped - and have a less than 1% chance of the drop.
Photo: Alex Pantling