How many points do Sheffield Wednesday need to avoid Championship relegation?

Sheffield Wednesday continue to battle it out at near the bottom of the Championship table, and are now only goal difference from safety. The Owls have made a real fist of it under Danny Rohl despite a poor start to the season, and they have given themselves a chance at survival in their first season back in the second tier.

With Rotherham United all-but gone at the bottom, we now have a huge scramble for survival with Wednesday and three other teams on 38 points, while Birmingham have 39, Millwall, Blackburn and Plymouth have 40, and even Swansea City in 15th only have 42. It feels like just about anyone in the bottom half could go down, and Wednesday are hoping it won't be them, securing a big win over Plymouth last time out to drag them towards the bottom three.

The Owls are going to have to find consistency, though, with year's survival total likely to be higher than most seasons. Here we run you through what that total may be, and what history tells us from previous Championship survival battles.

Average Championship survival totals

What we do know is that from the last 10 Championship seasons, the average total needed to survive is 43.9 points. That figure is calculated by adding one point to the total of the team who finished in 22nd position and calculating a 10-year average.

Now, that figure is not likely to indicate the survival figure for this season, given three teams from 23rd to 20th are already on 38 points, and it seems unlikely that - with 30 points up for grabs for most of those teams - the total won't be significantly higher this season, although we are talking about teams who have generally struggled to pick up points.

Across the last 10 years, the highest points tally that saw a team relegated was a tally of 51 accrued by Blackburn Rovers in 2016. Rovers sunk to League One on goal difference, behind Nottingham Forest, achieving a -12 goal difference compared to Forest's -10. The 50-point mark usually guarantees you survival in the Championship, but that season was the exception. Charlton were also unlucky to be relegated with 48 points in 2020.

As for this season, data experts FootballWP believe it won't take quite so many points as that season to dodge the drop. They are tipping QPR to stay up with 46 points and for Huddersfield to go down with 45. They also believe Wednesday will go down with 44 points, meaning they would pick up just six points from a possible 30 between now and the end of the season. It is true that Wednesday don't have a particularly friendly run-in, starting with Leeds and Ipswich back-to-back, but they will go into their final 10 knowing three or four wins should do the job.