Why the stats show Sheffield United shouldn't be worried about 'second season syndrome'

Of all the footballing cliches that have been spilled about Sheffield United since they returned to the Premier League, it is one that appears to have aggravated manager Chris Wilder more than most.
Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder: Richard Sellers/PA Wire.Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder: Richard Sellers/PA Wire.
Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder: Richard Sellers/PA Wire.

Second season syndrome. The idea that, after a team comes up from the Championship and survives in their first season in the big, bad Premier League, they will inevitably succumb to relegation in their second.

But is it actually borne out of any facts? Why, if it does happen, would that be the case? Pundits have spoken about United's unique style of play being 'found out' ever since it helped them into the Championship. Another promotion and a push for Europe later, it suggests that United haven't quite been sussed yet. And regardless, it's one thing figuring out how they play - and a different one entirely trying to stop it.

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But is second-season syndrome a thing? Objectively, the stats suggest not. Last season, Norwich, Watford and Bournemouth all fell through the trapdoor back to the EFL, after one, five and five seasons respectively. So no second-season struggle there.

In the last 20 seasons, nine promoted teams have been relegated in their second season. So it does happen. But of those nine, six finished 16th or lower in their first season, and couldn't repeat the survival feat in the second.

United, as a reminder, finished ninth, 20 points clear of third-bottom Bournemouth. There are examples of teams doing similarly well and succumbing the next campaign, including Ipswich (fifth in 2000/01), Reading (eighth, 2006/07) and Birmingham (ninth, 2009/10). There are also many success stories of clubs kicking on in their second season after promotion. Bournemouth finished ninth, while Burnley secured seventh and qualified for the Europa League.

Leicester, after surviving by six points in their first season back in the Premier League, then won the title in their second. No-one would go quite as far as predicting a title push this season for Chris Wilder and his men, but the stats suggest that there is certainly no need to panic - as The Star will highlight this week, with a series of articles and case-studies looking into the 'second season syndrome' myth.

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