Sheffield United's play-off chances rated following Coventry City defeat
Sheffield United find themselves nine points shy of the play-off places with 12 games remaining.
Despite winning four of their last seven Championship matches, Sheffield United’s play-off aspirations have weakened following the latest round of fixtures.
After sixth-placed Wrexham beat Portsmouth 2-1 at the Racecourse Ground on Tuesday night, United knew they had to beat Coventry City at Bramall Lane 24 hours later to reduce the gap to the final play-off berth back to six points.
Despite giving the Championship leaders a run for their money, a quick-fire turnaround from the Sky Blues saw them walk away with all three points, leaving the Blades nine points shy of the play-offs with 12 games to go.
As has been well-documented in recent weeks, the race for the play-offs, particularly the final spot, feels as though it is closer than ever. With 36 points still up for grabs for those who are currently realistically chasing sixth place, only nine points separate Wrexham in sixth and the Blades in 16th, meaning a lot can still happen between now and May.
United, of course, have been playing catch up all season because of their disastrous start to the season and the time they wasted by sacking Chris Wilder, appointing Rubén Sellés, sacking him after just five league games in charge and then reappointing Wilder.
Nothing can be guaranteed in football, but there is a very, very strong likelihood United would not have found themselves in the position they did in the first few weeks of the season had they not made a change in the dugout during the summer.
Blades face uphill struggle to secure top six spot
At first glance, trying to make up a nine-point deficit with just 12 games remaining is looking like a tall order for the Blades, although nothing can be dismissed in the Championship. The maximum number of points they can still accumulate is 81, meaning all is not lost just yet.
However, as things currently stand, the number of points required to finish sixth this season is set to be higher than what was required last season. Bristol City, who were beaten 6-0 on aggregate by the Blades in one of last season’s Championship play-off semi-finals, scooped sixth with 68 points, and would have done enough to claim the final play-off berth with 67.
That was only the second time in the last ten seasons that less than 70 points had been enough to clinch sixth. As things currently stand, Wrexham are the favourites, based on the points-per-game [PPG] metric (1.59), to clinch sixth.
Their tally of 1.59 PPG means, on current form, should they maintain it, they are projected to finish the season on 73 points. United, by contrast, are averaging a PPG of 1.32, meaning current projections suggest they will, on current form, finish on 60 points.
With those numbers in mind, United are going to have raise their game and put together a significant run of form if they are to finish inside the play-off positions. Just to match Wrexham’s projected final points tally, the Blades are going to have to amass 26 points from the final 36 on offer. It’s a tall order.
With plenty of traffic currently standing between United and the final play-off berth, that makes the challenge even harder. A win against Coventry could have lifted Wilder’s troops as high as 11th and to within six points of Wrexham, making the objective feel and look a lot more achievable.
Statistical specialists Opta, as of now, predict that United will finish 15th with an expected points tally of 62.67, while Wrexham are tipped to claim sixth with a final tally of 71.01.
Stranger things have happened, and the Championship is more than capable of producing the unexpected, but United’s play-off hopes now appear to be desperately unlikely.