YouGov predicts Labour victory in Rother Valley

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Labour is likely to gain the Rother Valley seat from the Conservatives, a YouGov poll predicts.

A new YouGov MRP model shows that Labour would retain its current seats in Rotherham, Barnsley South and Barnsley North, and would also take Rother Valley and Penistone and Stocksbridge from the Conservatives.

It predicts that Rotherham, currently represented by Sarah Champion, will be a safe seat for Labour.

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It also predicts that the Rother Valley seat, held by Conservative Alexander Stafford, will be won by Labour’s Jake Richards with 45 per cent of the vote.

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Mr Stafford stormed to victory in the constituency in 2019, as part of the Conservatives’ success in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ with 45 per cent of the votes.

He will defend his seat this year, against challengers from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform, and the Green Party.

The Conservatives are predicted to win just 25 per cent of the votes during this election.

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Labour is set to make gains across all areas of England holding more seats than the Conservatives in London, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, the North West, the North East, the South West and Yorkshire and the Humber. In the East of England, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 28 seats each while in the South East the Tories are set to take 37 seats to Labour’s 36.

YouGov’s MRP modelling looks at data on voting to show what would happen if a general election were to be held today. Its first MRP for the July 4 general election called last month by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak shows Keir Starmer’s party would win a historic majority of 194 seats, bigger than Tony Blair’s achievement in 1997.

YouGov, which bases its model on responses from almost 60,000 UK respondents on their voting intentions, says: “It would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.”

Also standing in Rother Valley is Colin Taylor for the Liberal Democrats, predicted to take 4 per cent of the vote; Paul Martin for the Green Party, predicted to take five per cent, and Tony Harrison for Reform, predicted to take 17 per cent of the vote.