Final poll predicts what will happen in Sheffield general election seats as voting gets underway
Voters in Sheffield are today casting their ballots in the general election, with polling stations open until 10pm tonight.
Exit polls cannot be published until then, but YouGov has published the results of its final opinion poll conducted before voting opened giving its predicted results for every constituency.
In Sheffield, it forecasts Labour will claim four out of six seats with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats claiming one each.
Nationally, it predicts a small Conservative majority, with the Tories taking 339 seats – 22 more than in 2017 – and 43 per cent of the vote.
Labour would win 231 seats, YouGov forecasts, which is 31 fewer than it claimed two years ago, with a 34 per cent share of the vote.
Here’s what YouGov predicts will happen in Sheffield’s constituencies:
SHEFFIELD BRIGHTSIDE AND HILLSBOROUGH – ‘SAFE LABOUR’ HOLD
Labour have nothing to fear here, according to YouGov, which estimates they will get 54 per cent of the vote, and the Conservatives are expected to finish a distant second with a 23 per cent share.
SHEFFIELD CENTRAL – ‘SAFE LABOUR’ HOLD
Things are looking even better for Labour here, where they are expected to get 60 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 16 per cent, followed by the Green Party on eight per cent and the Liberal Democrats on seven per cent.
SHEFFIELD HALLAM – ‘LEAN LIBERAL DEMOCRATS’ GAIN
This is too close to call, says YouGov, though it gives Liberal Democrat candidate Laura Gordon the slight edge over her Labour rival Olivia Blake, with the Conservatives’ Ian Walker a dark horse.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to take 36 per cent of the vote, with Labour – which held the seat until Jared O’Mara became an independent – getting 32 per cent and the Conservatives 23 per cent.
SHEFFIELD HEELEY – ‘SAFE LABOUR’ HOLD
Another seat where things are looking rosy for Labour, who are predicted to get 50 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 29 per cent.
SHEFFIELD SOUTH EAST – ‘SAFE LABOUR’ HOLD
There should be no worries for Labour here either, according to YouGov, which predicts they will get 50 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives will be the best of the rest on 30 per cent.
PENISTONE AND STOCKSBRIDGE – ‘LIKELY CONSERVATIVE’ GAIN
This constituency, which straddles Sheffield and Barnsley, would turn blue if YouGov has called it right.
The Conservatives are forecast to get 46 per cent of the vote in the seat – which was held by Labour until Angela Smith switched allegiances and ended up as a Liberal Democrat – ahead of Labour on 36 per cent.
The predictions are based on YouGov’s second and final ‘MRP’ poll of the 2019 general election – a model which it says correctly called 93 per cent of seats last time around.
MRP polling, which stands for ‘multilevel regression and post-stratification’, is a way of producing estimates for smaller areas by combining information from large national samples with data from the Office for National Statistics and the Census.
YouGov does point out that its predictions come with ‘some uncertainty’ and the margin of error means the outcome could vary from a hung parliament to a larger Conservative majority.
Its forecast also comes with the caveat that Labour appear to be benefiting from a late swing, with the gap between them and the Conservatives having narrowed in recent days.