Falling birth rates set to reduce demand for primary school places in Rotherham
Falling birth rates are expected to reduce demand for primary school places in Rotherham, according to a report.
A report to Rotherham Schools’ Forum says pupil numbers in primary schools have been declining since 2019, following a national drop in births since 2012.
Latest figures show births in the borough fell from more than 3,000 a year in the late 2010s to around 2,700 in recent years, with projections suggesting only modest fluctuations in the coming years.
This could reduce demand for primary school places in some areas of the borough.
Secondary school numbers, which had been rising in recent years as larger cohorts moved through the system, are now expected to level off before beginning a gradual decline after 2026.
Data in the report highlights how demand varies across the borough, with several areas already showing significant surplus primary places that are projected to grow.
In the North West planning area, surplus capacity is expected to rise from 660 places to 837 by 2028/29. In the South East, the surplus is forecast to increase from 380 to 697, while in Wath it is also set to grow from 371 to 697. This suggests that, in some parts of Rotherham, demand for primary school places is likely to ease further in the coming years.
Council officers said planning for school places is becoming increasingly complex, particularly with the impact of new housing developments.
While new homes can bring additional pupils, the report warns care must be taken to avoid “double counting” children already included in forecasts through population movement.
In some cases, families moving into new developments may already live locally, meaning the overall impact on school places is spread more widely.
The report also notes that where new developments create additional demand that cannot be met locally, developers may be asked to contribute funding for school places through legal agreements.
However, this funding does not always cover the full cost of creating new places, and can sometimes be reduced due to viability concerns.
Rotherham continues to see significant cross-border movement of pupils, with more than 3,000 children from outside the borough attending its schools.
Members of the Schools’ Forum are being asked to note the findings and consider any further action.