Yorkshire's latest R rate figures have been released and this is what it means

The number of coronavirus infections has fallen in Yorkshire as new experts reveal the latest estimate for the region’s “R number” – the rate of reproduction.
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Latest statistics from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) show that while in Yorkshire the overall number of coronavirus cases are decreasing, the rate of infections has slightly increased – according to data provided up to May 24.

The government has not published regional figures about how rapidly Covid-19 is spreading across different parts of the country, despite pressure from local leaders.

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Here’s the new table alongside last week’s for comparison.⬆️ East Mids, London, South West, Wales, Yorkshire➡️ East, North East, North West, Scotland, South East, West Mids⬇️ Northern IrelandMy thanks to @cmmid_lshtm. 2/2 pic.twitter.com/hSDUAvPydP

The rate of infections across Yorkshire is at 0.8 according to the latest figures from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.The rate of infections across Yorkshire is at 0.8 according to the latest figures from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.
The rate of infections across Yorkshire is at 0.8 according to the latest figures from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.

Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) June 4, 2020

Great Manchester mayor Andy Burnham shared the most recent statistics about the rate of infections on social media – as he argued people have a right to know how areas are coping with the crisis.

It comes after suggestions from mayors across the country that local lockdowns could be enforced in the future to tackle future isolated outbreaks of coronavirus.

Andy Burnham said: "It was the Government which put the R number centre stage but they are failing to give a regional breakdown.

Figures reveal the most recent estimates for R numbers in regions across the UK.Figures reveal the most recent estimates for R numbers in regions across the UK.
Figures reveal the most recent estimates for R numbers in regions across the UK.
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"I believe I am very much doing my job by bringing this information to public attention and I will continue to publish these stats every week until the Government does.

"The Government should take this process over and publish more up-to-date figures.

“We will keep challenging them until they do"

What have experts said about Yorkshire’s R number?

In Yorkshire and The Humber, the R number – also known as the rate of reproduction – is estimated to be 0.8, based on figures that were released 12 days ago.

This data, which was provided up to May 24, is currently the most recent figures available due to an NHS time-delay in publishing test data.

Is the R number good or bad?

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The indicator which is a common feature in the government’s coronavirus daily briefings, reveals how many people on average, a person infected with the virus, will pass Covid-19 onto.

According to scientists, if the recorded reproduction number is higher than 1 then the number of coronavirus cases increases rapidly.

However if the R number remains lower than 1, then it is possible that the virus could eventually die out, if not enough new people can be infected.

How does this compare to the rest of the UK?

The government announced that the rate of reproduction for England was between 0.7 and 0.9 on Friday, June 2.

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But a regional breakdown of the R rate for specific areas has not yet been provided.

However statistics from the CMMID reveal that Yorkshire’s R rate of is believed to be on a par with regions across the country – with London, West Midlands, North East, North West, Scotland and Ireland having an estimated level of 0.8.

The R number was slightly lower in some areas with the South East and East of England had a rate of 0.7.

Why is there not an R for my town or city?

R values can not be calculated in a meaningful way at a local level because the data involves such low figures that even small changes can make a disproportionately big relative difference.