'Limited room' to relax coronavirus restrictions in Sheffield when lockdown ends
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Greg Fell’s forecast was based on information published by SAGE about possible scenarios over the next six months, but he admitted it is “impossible to tell” what the future looks like.
He said: “I think there will be limited room to relax interventions.
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Hide Ad“The absolute level of population immunity is pretty low. If we were in a scenario where 60 to 70 per cent of the population had had this illness then we’d be in a very different position.”
As little as 10 per cent of people could have been infected so far, he added.
The number of people with Covid-19 who infect another person will “probably” drop to one or below in Yorkshire by the time the second lockdown ends, Mr Fell said.
The R number is currently between 1.2 and 1.5.
Mr Fell said: "If we relax measures quickly that could easily cause R0 to exceed one once again and the rate of infection could rapidly take off.
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Hide Ad"We will be in a space of some restrictions on our behaviour, some restrictions on our movement, continuing for some time to come. It’s a government call”.
Sheffield’s infection rate fell to 297 per 100,000 people in the seven days to 13 November, down from 362 the week before. It was previously almost 450 before Tier 3 restrictions were introduced in October.
It is still too high, however, Mr Fell said, having been as low as 20 in early summer.
He added: “Once prevalence is low and once R is well below one restrictions could be eased somewhat, but I do think substantial measures will need to be in place over the whole of the winter."
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Hide Ad“We are pushing for a low and contained virus, I hope we get there. I think prevalence will continue to be higher than we want it to be and certainly higher than is comfortable for us for some time to come.”