Alarming coronavirus map predicts Sheffield is almost certain to be Covid-19 hotspot

Positive cases of Covid-19 are on the rise in the north, and particularly Yorkshire, where there were 9,453 confirmed cases between June 29 and September 8.

Now, a study by Imperial College London has predicted how likely it is that each area will become a Covid-19 hotspot – with places in Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire coming out as some of the highest.

The study measures a hotspot as an area that has an infection rate of more than 50 people per week per 100,000 people.

Sheffield was placed on the watchlist as an ‘area of concern’ by the government on Friday, September 11, and the figures from the university study show that it is increasingly likely Sheffield will be one of the biggest Covid-19 infection hotspots in the country.

The study shows that Sheffield as of today, Monday, September 14, has 89 per cent chance of becoming a coronavirus hotspot, with that projected figure increasing weekly, rising to 97 per cent from September 25.

These figures have gone up drastically from the 52 per cent projection on Wednesday, September 9 made by the same study.

The study also shows that the reproduction number is projected to be considerably above 1 for the whole of the month of September.

There were 49 confirmed positive cases in Sheffield per 100,000 people as of Thursday September 10, a figure that rose significantly from 30 per 100,000 the week before.

This is the biggest incline in positive cases in Sheffield since the end of lockdown, and if these projected figures do materialise, it is highly likely that the city will be put into a local lockdown.

Neighboring Doncaster, however, comes off a lot more favourably in the study, with the likelihood of it becoming a coronavirus hotspot extremely unlikely.

The study, carried out by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics at the university, projects, from today, only a 1 per cent chance of Doncaster becoming a hotspot.

This is a figure that only rises to 9 per cent by the end of September.

As of September 9 there were only 16.4 positive cases per 100,000 people in Doncaster, which was more than the previous week.

The situation is similar in Chesterfield, even though the amount of cases is also on the rise.

The study shows, as of today, September 14, Chesterfield has only a 3 per cent chance of becoming a hotspot, and this percentage is only rising to 7 per cent by the end of the month.

The number of cases has per 100,000 people has risen to 23.89 this week.

In Nottinghamshire, in Mansfield and Ashfield the probability of becoming a hotspot is significantly higher than that of Doncaster and Chesterfield, with the study suggesting that there is a 28 per cent probability, as of today, that Ashfield could become a hotspot, one per cent more than the 27 per cent projection for Mansfield.

The potential for the areas to become coronavirus hotspots increases by the end of the month, with both having a projection percentage of nearly 50 per cent by September 25.

Cases in both areas have gone up significantly in the past week.